Annals of
Improbable Research
Online (May
11, 2007)
Who Will Win
the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election?
Eric Schulman
Alexandria, Virginia
Daniel Debowy
Massachusetts General
Hospital / McLean, Belmont,
Massachusetts
Abstract
Our 2003 algorithm for determining
the winners of United States presidential elections correctly
determined the winner of each of the 55 U.S.
presidential
elections between 1789 and 2004. We apply the algorithm to 44
Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential
election and find that the Democrats have nine tickets with
electabilities greater than 150, whereas the Republicans have five
tickets with electabilities greater than 150. The most electable
ticket, with an electability of 264,
has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential
candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential
candidate. The next most electable ticket, with an electability of 260,
has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential
candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. as the vice
presidential candidate.
1.
Introduction
Unlike the Redskins
Algorithm
(the incumbent political party wins the presidency of the United States
if the Washington Redskins American football team wins the last home
game before the election) or the Red Sox Algorithm (if the Boston Red
Sox baseball team wins the World Series in a U.S. presidential
election year then Woodrow Wilson is elected president), the Annals
of Improbable Research U.S. Presidential Election Algorithm (Debowy
and Schulman 2003) correctly predicted the outcome of the 2004
United
States presidential election. In this paper we apply our proven
algorithm to 44
Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S.
presidential election.
2.
Methods
We
determined the electability for president and vice president of the
Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential
election using the following formulas:
Presidential
Electability = 5*(years as President) + years as U.S. Representative +
11*(years as Governor),
+110
if the candidate has been a four-star general officer in the
United
States Armed Forces,
+110
if the candidate has been a college or university president or
chancellor,
+110
if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
110
if the candidate has been divorced,
110
if the candidate has been a special prosecutor,
110
if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g.,
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) to be a major-party
candidate for
President,
110
if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time
of the
election.
Vice
Presidential Electability = 4*(years as Vice President) + years as U.S.
Representative + years as Governor,
+110
if the candidate has been a corporate banker,
+110
if the candidate has been a college or university president or
chancellor,
+110
if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
110
if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g.,
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) to be a major-party
candidate
for Vice President,
110
if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time
of the
election.
Total Electability = Presidential Electability + Vice Presidential Electability.
Years in office is equal to the number of years the candidate served in a particular office, rounded up as long as the partial year service was one month or more, unless the candidate moved directly from one public office to another, in which case the office in which the candidate spent a larger fraction of their time during that year receives credit for the year. Years of service for offices were verified using the standard repository of all knowledge and wisdom (Wikipedia). Although the electorate doesnt care one way or the other how long a candidate has served as a U.S. Senator, we included this information for completeness. In every presidential election between 1789 and 2004, the major party ticket with the highest electability was declared the winner and took office.
3.
Results
We divided the
2008
Democratic
and Republican
candidates into those seeking the presidency (they filed with the
Federal Electons Commission or formed exploratory
committees as of March 18, 2007), those considering seeking the
presidency, and those who
have either declined to seek the presidential nomination or who have
dropped out of the race. The candidates in the last category are
considered as potential vice presidential candidates. The presidential
and vice presidential electabilties for 18 Democrats are shown in
Tables 1 through 3. The presidential and vice presidential
electabilties for 26 Republicans are shown in Tables 4 through 6.
Table 1. Electability of the Eight Democratic Candidates for President in 2008
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electabilty |
|||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| William
B. Richardson III |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
6 |
83 |
23 |
|
| Christopher
J. Dodd |
0 |
0 |
28 |
6 |
0 |
Son
of Senator, Divorced |
6 |
116 |
| Joseph
R. Biden Jr. |
0 |
0 |
36 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Maurice
R. Gravel |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Hillary
D. R. Clinton |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Johnny
R. Edwards |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Barack
H. Obama |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Dennis
J. Kucinich |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
Divorced |
-98 |
12 |
Table 2. Electability of the Three Potential Democratic Candidates for President in 2008
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electability | |||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| Albert
A. Gore Jr. |
0 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Son
of Sentator |
118 |
150 |
| Wesley
K. Clark |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General |
110 |
0 |
| Alfred
C. Sharpton Jr. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Table 3. Electability of the Seven Democrats Who Have Declined to Seek the 2008 Presidential Nomination
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electabilty | |||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| Birch
E. Bayh III |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
8 |
Son
of Senator |
198 |
118 |
| Howard
B. Dean III |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
132 |
12 |
|
| Thomas
J. Vilsack |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
88 |
8 |
|
| Thomas
A. Daschle |
0 |
0 |
18 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
|
| Mark
R. Warner |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
44 |
4 |
|
| John
F. Kerry |
0 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
0 |
| Russell
D. Feingold |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced,
Jewish |
-220 |
0 |
Table 4. Electability of the Fourteen Republican Candidates for President in 2008
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electability | |||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| Tommy
G. Thompson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
154 |
14 |
|
| Michael
D. Huckabee |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
121 |
11 |
|
| James
S. Gilmore III |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
44 |
4 |
|
| Duncan
L. Hunter |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
0 |
28 |
28 |
|
| Ronald
E. Paul |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
0 |
19 |
19 |
|
| Thomas
G. Tancredo |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
|
| Samuel
D. Brownback |
0 |
0 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
| Richard
M. Smith |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Michael
C. Smith |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Hugh
Cort III |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Williard
M. Romney |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Mormon |
-66 |
-106 |
| John
S. McCain III |
0 |
0 |
22 |
4 |
0 |
Divorced |
-106 |
4 |
| Rudolph
W. L. Giuliani III |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
0 |
| John
H. Cox |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Lobbying
Org. Officer |
-110 |
-110 |
Table 5. Electability of the Five Potential Republican Candidates for President in 2008
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electability | |||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| George
E. Pataki |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
132 |
12 |
|
| Charles
T. Hagel |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
Banker |
0 |
110 |
| Michael
A. Weiner |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Newton
L. Gingrich |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
0 |
Divorced |
-90 |
20 |
| Freddie
D. Thompson |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
0 |
Table 6. Electability of the Seven Republicans Who Have Declined to Seek the 2008 Presidential Nomination
Candidate |
Years as |
Notes |
Electability | |||||
| Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Pres. |
V.P. |
||
| Richard
B. Cheney |
0 |
8 |
0 |
11 |
0 |
11 |
43 |
|
| George
F. Allen |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
4 |
Divorced |
-54 |
16 |
| Marshall
C. Sanford Jr. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
72 |
12 |
|
| John
E. Bush |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
88 |
8 |
|
| Richard
J. Santorum |
0 |
0 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
| William
H. Frist Sr. |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Condoleezza
Rice |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
The Democrats have nine potential tickets with
electabilities greater than 150 whereas the Republicans have five
potential tickets with electabilities greater than 150. These
tickets are
shown in Table 7.
Table 7. Democratic and Republican Tickets with Electabilities Greater than 150
| Democratic Ticket | Electability |
Republican Ticket | Electability | ||||||
| President |
Vice
President |
Pres. |
V.P. |
Total |
President | Vice President | Pres. |
V.P. |
Total |
| |
Tommy G. Thompson | Charles T. Hagel | 154 |
110 |
264 |
||||
| Wesley
K. Clark |
Albert A. Gore Jr. | 110 |
150 |
260 |
|||||
| George
E. Pataki |
Charles T. Hagel | 132 |
110 |
242 |
|||||
| Albert A. Gore Jr. | Birch E. Bayh III | 118 |
118 |
236 |
|||||
| Albert A. Gore Jr. | Christopher
J. Dodd |
118 |
116 |
234 |
|||||
| William B. Richardson III | Albert A. Gore Jr. | 83 |
150 |
233 |
|||||
| |
Michael D. Huckabee | Charles T. Hagel | 121 |
110 |
231 |
||||
| Wesley K. Clark | Birch E. Bayh III | 110 |
118 |
228 |
|
||||
| Wesley K. Clark | Christopher J. Dodd | 110 |
116 |
226 |
|||||
| William B. Richardson III | Birch E. Bayh III | 83 |
118 |
201 |
|||||
| William B. Richardson III | Christopher J. Dodd | 83 |
116 |
199 |
|||||
| Tommy G. Thompson | Richard
B. Cheney |
154 |
43 |
197 |
|||||
| Christopher J. Dodd | Albert A. Gore Jr. | 6 |
150 |
156 |
|||||
| James S. Gilmore III | Charles T. Hagel | 44 |
110 |
154 |
|||||
4.
Discussion
As can be seen in Table 7 above, the most electable ticket has
Republican former Governor Tommy G.
Thompson as the presidential
candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential
candidate. The next most electable ticket has Democratic retired
General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice
President Albert A. Gore, Jr. as the vice presidential candidate.
We assume that major party primary voters are
rational
and will understand the empirical power
of
our algorithm. Democratic primary voters will therefore nominate Wesley
K. Clark,
Albert A. Gore Jr., William B. Richardson, or Christopher J. Dodd as
their 2008 presidential
candidate. This candidate, being rational, will choose Albert A. Gore
Jr., Birch E. Bayh III, or Christopher J. Dodd as their vice
presidential running mate. Republican primary voters will nominate
Tommy G.
Thompson, George E. Pataki, Michael D. Huckabee, or James S. Gilmore
III as their 2008
presidential candidate. This candidate, being rational, will choose
Charles T. Hagel or Richard B. Cheney as their vice presidential
running mate (whether Mr. Cheney
would accept a job
that, as Vice President Nelson Rockefeller noted, "has no
responsibility and no power" is beyond the scope of this paper).
Not everyone believes that major party primary voters are rational.
Political
prediction markets such as Intrade.com
allow users to place bets on which candidates they think will win
elections; their users show a remarkable confidence that major party
primary voters will choose candidates with low electabilities. For
example, on March 20, 2007,
it cost Intrade users $45.30 to buy futures that would pay $100 if
Hillary D. R. Clinton became the 2008 Democratic nominee for president.
On that date, Rudolph W. L.
Giuliani III futures cost $42.00, Barack H. Obama futures cost $30.00,
John S. McCain III futures cost
$20.10, and Williard M. Romney futures cost $16.00. Those five were the
only candidates with Intrade presidential futures prices above $10 and
their presidential
electabilities range from a low of -110 to a high of 0. In contrast,
Tommy G. Thompson
(presidential electability of +154) and Wesley K Clark (presidential
electability of +110) futures cost only 40 cents each. Figure 1 shows
the
electability vs. Intrade futures prices for 18 Democratic and 21
Republican candidates for president (solid circles) and 8 Democratic
and 7 Republican candidates for vice president (open circles). The
linear regression line shows that, in general, the higher a candidate's
electability, the lower their Intrade price.
Figure 1. Electability
vs. Intrade Price for 2008 Democratic and
Republican Candidates
5.
Conclusion
Readers of this paper could make a lot of money at
Intrade.com if our assumption that major party primary voters are
rational is correct.