Annals of Improbable Research Online (June 30, 2003)

Who Should Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election?

Eric Schulman
Alexandria, Virginia

Abstract
Howard B. Dean or Wesley K. Clark
(or President George W. Bush, should he order the combat use of nuclear weapons).

1. Introduction

    Two years ago, we discovered the holy grail of Washington D. C., a formula to predict the electability of a presidential candidate before he or she is nominated (Schulman 2001). Now that it seems clear that George W. Bush will receive the Republican nomination, we have applied this formula to both him and to the nine currently-declared Democratic presidential candidates (plus three others who may decide to run). To review for those few readers who have not memorized the formula:

Electability = 4P - V - S + R + 9G + 95DCI + 95GEN + 95NUC,

where P is the number of years the candidate served as President, V is the number of years the candidate served as Vice President, S is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Senator, R is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Representative, and the Boolean variables DCI/GEN/NUC are 1 if the candidate served as Director of Central Intelligence (e.g., George H. W. Bush), was a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces (e.g., Dwight D. Eisenhower), or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons (e.g., Harry S. Truman), respectively. In each U. S. Presidential election between 1932 and 2000, the candidate with the higher electability won.
 

2. Methods and Results

    We used the equation above to determine the electability of George W. Bush and twelve declared or potential Democratic presidential candidates. The results are shown in the table below:

Candidate
Pres
VP
Sen
Rep
Gov
D/G/N?
Electabilty
George W. Bush¹
4
0
0
0
6
 N
165
Howard B. Dean
0
0
0
0
12
108
Wesley K. Clark
0
0
0
0
0
 G 
  95
George W. Bush
4
0
0
0
6
  
  70
D. Robert Graham
0
0
18
0
8
  
  54
Richard A. Gephardt
0
0
0
28
0
  
  28
Dennis J. Kucinich
0
0
0
8
0
  
    8
Alfred Sharpton
0
0
0
0
0
  
    0
Johnny R. Edwards
0
0
6
0
0

  -6
Carol Moseley-Braun
0
0
6
0
0
  
  -6
Joseph I. Lieberman
0
0
16
0
0

-16
Bill Bradley
0
0
18
0
0
  
-18
John F. Kerry
0
0
20
0
0

-20
Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
0
0
32
0
0
  
-32
¹Should President George W. Bush order the combat use of nuclear weapons.    

3. Discussion
    George W. Bush will have an electability of 70 if he remains in office through November of 2004. The Democrats could defeat him if they nominated either former Governor Howard B. Dean (electability of 108) or retired General Wesley K. Clark (electability of 95). Since the Democrats wish to regain the White House, they will presumably nominate one of these men. However, should President George W. Bush order the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004, his electability would jump to 165, comfortably larger than any of the possible Democratic candidates.

4. Conclusions
    The winner of the 2004 U. S. Presidential election will be Howard B. Dean or Wesley K. Clark (or President George W. Bush, should he order the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004).

References
  Schulman, E. 2001, "Who Will Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election?" AIR, 7, 1, 26.