Annals of Improbable Research, Vol. 7, No. 1 , pg. 26. (January/February 2001)

Who Will Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election?

Eric Schulman
Alexandria, Virginia

Abstract
James B. Hunt, Jr. or William J. Janklow (or President George
W. Bush, should he order the combat use of nuclear weapons).

1. Introduction

    The holy grail of Washington D. C. is a formula to predict the electability of a presidential candidate before he or she is nominated. Here we present just such an algorithm, which determines the likelihood that a candidate will win a presidential election depending on the number of years they have served as President, Vice President, U. S. Senator, U. S. Representative, and Governor. It also takes into account whether the candidate was Director of Central Intelligence, a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces, and/or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons. We find that the best jobs for presidential candidates to have are Director of Central Intelligence, general officer in the United States Armed Forces, Governor, President, and U. S. Representative (in that order). Contrary to popular belief, our formula suggests that experience as Vice President or U. S. Senator actually lowers one's chances to be elected President of the United States. We also found that ordering the combat use of nuclear weapons substantially increases a President's chances for reelection.

2. Methods and Results

    We analyzed the government experience of the two major party candidates in each of the U. S. Presidential elections since 1932 in an attempt to discover a formula for determining the outcome of future (or hypothetical) U. S. Presidential elections. We discovered the following empirical formula after extensive stochastic trials (i.e., we guessed different values until the results agreed with the historical election record):

Electability = 4P - V - S + R + 9G + 95DCI + 95GEN + 95NUC,

where P is the number of years the candidate served as President, V is the number of years the candidate served as Vice President, S is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Senator, R is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Representative, G is the number of years the candidate served as a state Governor, and the Boolean variables DCI/GEN/NUC are 1 if the candidate served as Director of Central Intelligence (e.g., George H. W. Bush), was a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces (e.g., Dwight D. Eisenhower), or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons (e.g., Harry S. Truman), respectively. Note that this is not necessarily a unique solution (i.e., we stopped searching once we found a set of parameters that worked). In each U. S. Presidential election between 1932 and 2000, the candidate with the higher electability won, as seen in the table below:

 

Candidate
Year
Pres
VP
Sen
Rep
Gov
D/G/N?
Electabilty
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1932
0
0
0
0
4
  
  36
Herbert C. Hoover
4
0
0
0
0
  
  16
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1936
4
0
0
0
4
  
  52
Alfred M. Landon
0
0
0
0
4
  
  36
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1940
8
0
0
0
4
  
  68
Wendell L. Willkie
0
0
0
0
0
  
    0
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944
12
0
0
0
4
  
  84
Thomas E. Dewey
0
0
0
0
2
  
  18
Harry S. Truman
1948
4
0
12
0
0
N
  99
Thomas E. Dewey
0
0
0
0
6
  
  54
Dwight D. Eisenhower
1952
0
0
0
0
0
G
  95
Adlai E. Stevenson¹
0
0
0
0
4
  
  36
Dwight D. Eisenhower
1956
4
0
0
0
0
G
111
Adlai E. Stevenson¹
0
0
0
0
4
  
  36
John F. Kennedy
 1960
0
0
8
6
0
  
  -2
Richard M. Nixon
0
8
3
4
0
  
  -7
Lyndon B. Johnson
1964
1
3
12
12
0
  
   1
Barry M. Goldwater
0
0
12
0
0
  
-12
Richard M. Nixon
1968
0
8
3
4
0
  
  -7
Hubert H. Humphrey, Jr.
0
4
16
0
0
  
-20
Richard M. Nixon
1972
4
8
3
4
0
  
   9
George S. McGovern
0
0
10
4
0
  
  -6
James E. Carter, Jr.
1976
0
0
0
0
4
  
  36
Gerald R. Ford, Jr.
2
1
0
25
0
  
  32
Ronald W. Reagan
1980
0
0
0
0
8
  
  72
James E. Carter, Jr.
4
0
0
0
4
  
  52
Ronald W. Reagan
1984
4
0
0
0
8
  
  88
Walter F. Mondale
0
4
12
0
0
  
-16
George H. W. Bush
1988
0
8
0
4
0
D
  91
Michael S. Dukakis
0
0
0
0
10
  
  90
William J. Clinton
1992
0
0
0
0
12
  
108
George H. W. Bush
4
8
0
4
0
D
107
William J. Clinton
1996
4
0
0
0
12
  
124
Robert J. Dole
0
0
28
8
0
  
 -20
George W. Bush
2000
0
0
0
0
6
  
  54
Albert A. Gore, Jr.
0
8
8
8
0
  
  -8
                 
George W. Bush
2004
4
0
0
0
6
  
  70
James B. Hunt, Jr.
0
0
0
0
16
  
144
William J. Janklow
0
0
0
0
16
  
144
George W. Bush²
4
0
0
0
6
N
165
¹The grandson of Vice President Adlai E. Stevenson, who served during Cleveland's second term.
²Should President George W. Bush order the combat use of nuclear weapons.

    Note that serving as Vice President or U. S. Senator hurts a candidates chances of being elected President. In fact, both of the major party candidates in the 1960 and 1968 Presidential elections had negative electabilities. Our formula suggests that had either major party nominated a candidate with no government experience for either of these elections, that candidate would have won.

3. Discussion
    An empirical formula is of little use if it cannot predict future events. Should George W. Bush remain in office and run for re-election in 2004, he would have an electability of 70. The Democrats, however, could defeat him if they nominated James B. Hunt, Jr., the four-term governor of North Carolina. But Republican strategists will no doubt have read this article, too, and could respond by nominating four-term South Dakota Governor William J. Janklow. Both candidates would have electabilities of 144 (assuming they have no other relevant government experience between now and 2004). Two candidates with tied electabilities would surely lead to the closest U. S. Presidential election in 75 years. This catastrophe could be avoided if President George W. Bush orders the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004, in which case his electability would jump to 165, comfortably larger than any of the possible Democratic candidates.

4. Conclusions
    The winner of the 2004 U. S. Presidential election will be Democratic Governor James B. Hunt, Jr. or Republican Governor William J. Janklow (or Republican President George W. Bush, should he order the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004).