Annals
of
Improbable Research Online
(October 20,
2003)
An Algorithm
for
Determining the Winners of U.S. Presidential Elections
Daniel Debowy
New York University
School of Medicine, New York, New
York
Eric
Schulman
Alexandria, Virginia
Abstract
We present an algorithm for determining the winners of United States presidential elections, based on the previous experience of the major party candidates for President and Vice President. The algorithm correctly determines the winner of each of the 54 U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 2000. Our algorithm predicts that President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard B. Cheney will win the 2004 election unless:
the Democratic nominee for President is Howard B. Dean,
the Democratic nominee for President is Wesley K. Clark and the Democratic nominee for Vice President has been Vice President for at least two years, a governor for at least five years, or a U.S. Representative for at least five years,
the Democratic nominee for President is Richard A. Gephardt and the Democratic nominee for Vice President is a banker, a college or university chancellor or president, or the child of a U.S. Senator, or
the Democratic nominee for Vice President is Albert A. Gore, Jr. or John D. Rockefeller, IV, and the Democratic nominee for President has not been divorced, has not been a special prosecutor, and is a Protestant, Deist, or Catholic.
Although any of the currently declared Democratic candidates for President could, in theory, win in 2004 if they carefully choose their vice presidential candidates, in practice it would be difficult for many of them to find candidates for Vice President with the right combination of governmental and non-governmental experience.
1.
Introduction
Throughout the history of the United States, politicians have attempted to determine the likelihood of one candidate or another winning a presidential election. Schulman (2001) presented an algorithm that purported to do just that for the presidential elections since 1932. Their algorithm depended on the number of years the candidates had served as President, Vice President, U. S. Senator, U. S. Representative, and Governor. It also took into account whether the candidate had been Director of Central Intelligence, a general officer in the United States Armed Forces, and/or had ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons. Although their formula correctly predicted the winners of the U.S. presidential elections between 1932 and 2000, it did not correctly predict the winners of all the U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 1928. Schulman (2001) obviously believed that U.S. presidential elections over the last 70 years are not typical of all U.S. presidential elections. We disagree with that conclusion, and in this paper present an algorithm that correctly determines the winners of every U.S. presidential election between 1789 and 2000.
2.
Methods and Results
We analyzed the experience of the major party candidates for President and Vice President in each of the U. S. Presidential elections since 1804, and the experience of the two top candidates for President in 1789, 1792, 1796, and 1800 (when the candidate who received the most electoral votes became President, and the candidate who received the next largest share of electoral votes became Vice President). We discovered the following empirical formula after an extensive phase space search:
Presidential Electability = 5*(years as President) + years as U.S. Representative + 11*(years as Governor),
+110 if the candidate has been a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces,
+110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor,
+110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
110 if the candidate has been divorced,
110 if the candidate has been a special prosecutor,
110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Protestantism, Deism, or Catholicism) to be a major-party candidate for President,
110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election.
Vice Presidential Electability = 4*(years as Vice President) + years as U.S. Representative + years as Governor,
+110 if the candidate has been a corporate banker,
+110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor,
+110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Protestantism, Deism, Catholicism, or Judaism) to be a major-party candidate for Vice President,
110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election.
Total Electability = Presidential Electability + Vice Presidential Electability.
Years in office is equal to the number of years the candidate served in a particular office, rounded up as long as the partial year service was one month or more, unless the candidate moved directly from one public office to another, in which case the office in which the candidate spent a larger fraction of their time during that year receives credit for the year. Years of service for federal offices were verified using the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress and years of service for governor were verified using the relevant state websites. In each U. S. presidential election between 1789 and 2000, the candidates with the higher total electability won, as seen in Table 1 below. Note that the electorate doesnt appear to care one way or the other how long a candidate has served as a U.S. Senator, but we included that information in Table 1 for completeness.
Table 1. United States Presidential Elections, 1789 to 2000
|
Year |
Candidate |
Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Other |
Total |
||
|
1789 |
George
Washington |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
College
Chancellor1 |
110 |
110 |
|
|
John Adams |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1792 |
George
Washington |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
College
Chancellor1 |
110 |
130 |
|
|
John Adams |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1796 |
John Adams |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
|
Thomas
Jefferson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
First Deist |
-110 |
-88 |
||
|
1800 |
Thomas
Jefferson |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
22 |
|
|
John Adams |
4 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
1804 |
Thomas
Jefferson |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
42 |
64 |
|
George Clinton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
|
0 |
22 |
||
|
Charles C.
Pinckney |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Rufus King |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1808 |
James
Madison |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
46 |
|
George Clinton |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
|
0 |
38 |
||
|
Charles C.
Pinckney |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Rufus King |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1812 |
James
Madison |
4 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
28 |
34 |
|
Elbridge Gerry |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
DeWitt
Clinton |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Jared Ingersoll |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1816 |
James Monroe |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
54 |
|
Daniel D. Tompkins |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
|
0 |
10 |
||
|
Rufus King |
0 |
0 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
|
John E. Howard |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
|
0 |
3 |
||
|
1820 |
James Monroe |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
64 |
90 |
|
Daniel D. Tompkins |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
|
0 |
26 |
||
|
John Q.
Adams |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
|
Richard Stockton |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
1824 |
John Q.
Adams |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
7 |
|
John C. Calhoun |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
|
0 |
7 |
||
|
Andrew
Jackson |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Nathan Sanford |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1828 |
Andrew
Jackson |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
24 |
|
John C. Calhoun |
0 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
|
0 |
23 |
||
|
John Q.
Adams |
4 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
Richard Rush |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1832 |
Andrew
Jackson |
4 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
21 |
22 |
|
Martin Van Buren |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
||
|
Henry Clay |
0 |
0 |
5 |
11 |
0 |
|
0 |
11 |
21 |
|
|
John Sergeant |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
|
0 |
10 |
||
|
1836 |
Martin Van
Buren |
0 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
11 |
31 |
|
Richard M. Johnson |
0 |
0 |
10 |
20 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
William H.
Harrison |
0 |
0 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
|
0 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
Francis Granger |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
1840 |
William H.
Harrison |
0 |
0 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
|
0 |
5 |
121 |
|
John Tyler |
0 |
0 |
9 |
4 |
2 |
College
Chancellor2 |
110 |
116 |
||
|
Martin Van
Buren |
4 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
31 |
67 |
|
|
Richard M. Johnson |
0 |
4 |
10 |
20 |
0 |
|
0 |
36 |
||
|
1844 |
James K.
Polk |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
2 |
|
0 |
36 |
36 |
|
George M. Dallas |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Henry Clay |
0 |
0 |
14 |
11 |
0 |
Lobbying
Org. Officer3 |
-110 |
-99 |
11 |
|
|
Theodore Frelinghuysen |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
Lobby+Univ.+Sen.
Son4 |
110 |
110 |
||
|
1848 |
Zachary
Taylor |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
8 |
|
Millard Fillmore |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
Lewis Cass |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
William O. Butler |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
1852 |
Franklin
Pierce |
0 |
0 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
10 |
|
William R. King |
0 |
0 |
30 |
6 |
0 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
Winfield
Scott |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
William A. Graham |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
1856 |
James
Buchanan |
0 |
0 |
11 |
10 |
0 |
|
0 |
10 |
14 |
|
John C. Breckinridge |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
John C.
Frιmont |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
William L. Dayton |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1860 |
Abraham
Lincoln |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
7 |
|
Hannibal Hamlin |
0 |
0 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
|
0 |
5 |
||
|
John C.
Breckenridge |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
Joseph Lane |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1864 |
Abraham
Lincoln |
4 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
22 |
36 |
|
Andrew Johnson |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
4 |
|
0 |
14 |
||
|
George B.
McClellan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
8 |
|
|
George H. Pendleton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
1868 |
Ulysses S.
Grant |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General5 |
110 |
110 |
124 |
|
Schuyler Colfax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
|
0 |
14 |
||
|
Horatio
Seymour |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
50 |
|
|
Francis P. Blair, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
1872 |
Ulysses S.
Grant |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General5 |
110 |
130 |
130 |
|
Henry Wilson |
0 |
0 |
19 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Horace
Greeley |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
B. Gratz Brown |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
1876 |
Rutherford
B. Hayes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
|
0 |
69 |
189 |
|
William A. Wheeler |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
Banker6 |
110 |
120 |
||
|
Samuel J.
Tilden |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
22 |
30 |
|
|
Thomas A. Hendricks |
0 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
1880 |
James A.
Garfield |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
0 |
College
President7 |
110 |
128 |
128 |
|
Chester A. Arthur |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Winfield S.
Hancock |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
8 |
|
|
William H. English |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
1884 |
Grover
Cleveland |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
22 |
30 |
|
Thomas A. Hendricks |
0 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
James G.
Blaine |
0 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
0 |
|
0 |
14 |
21 |
|
|
John A. Logan |
0 |
0 |
12 |
7 |
0 |
|
0 |
7 |
||
|
1888 |
Benjamin
Harrison |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
112 |
|
Levi P. Morton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
Banker8 |
110 |
112 |
||
|
Grover
Cleveland |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
42 |
44 |
|
|
Allen G. Thurman |
0 |
0 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
1892 |
Grover
Cleveland |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
42 |
46 |
|
Adlai E. Stevenson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
Benjamin
Harrison |
4 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
Whitelaw Reid |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1896 |
William
McKinley |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
4 |
|
0 |
58 |
58 |
|
Garret A. Hobart |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
William J.
Bryan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
-106 |
|
|
Arthur Sewall |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
First Swedenborgian |
-110 |
0 |
||
|
1900 |
William
McKinley |
4 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
4 |
|
0 |
78 |
80 |
|
Theodore Roosevelt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
William J.
Bryan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
24 |
|
|
Adlai E. Stevenson |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
1904 |
Theodore
Roosevelt |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
37 |
37 |
|
Charles W. Fairbanks |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Alton B.
Parker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
-110 |
|
|
Henry G. Davis |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
Lobbying
Org. Officer9 |
-110 |
-110 |
||
|
1908 |
William H.
Taft |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
20 |
|
James S. Sherman |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
William J.
Bryan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
John W. Kern |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1912 |
T. Woodrow
Wilson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
University
President10 |
110 |
132 |
136 |
|
Thomas R. Marshall |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
William H.
Taft |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
130 |
|
|
Nicholas M. Butler |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
University
President11 |
110 |
110 |
||
|
1916 |
T. Woodrow
Wilson |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
University
President10 |
110 |
152 |
172 |
|
Thomas R. Marshall |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
Charles E.
Hughes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
60 |
|
|
Charles W. Fairbanks |
0 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
16 |
||
|
1920 |
Warren G.
Harding |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
Calvin Coolidge |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
James M. Cox |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
6 |
Divorced12 |
-110 |
-40 |
-40 |
|
|
Franklin D. Roosevelt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1924 |
Calvin
Coolidge |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
32 |
142 |
|
Charles G. Dawes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Banker13 |
110 |
110 |
||
|
John W.
Davis |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
Charles W. Bryan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
1928 |
Herbert C.
Hoover |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Charles Curtis |
0 |
0 |
21 |
14 |
0 |
|
0 |
14 |
||
|
Alfred E.
Smith |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
First
Catholic |
-110 |
-22 |
-11 |
|
|
Joseph T. Robinson |
0 |
0 |
16 |
10 |
1 |
|
0 |
11 |
||
|
1932 |
Franklin D.
Roosevelt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
74 |
|
John N. Garner |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
0 |
|
0 |
30 |
||
|
Herbert C.
Hoover |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
50 |
|
|
Charles Curtis |
0 |
4 |
21 |
14 |
0 |
|
0 |
30 |
||
|
1936 |
Franklin D.
Roosevelt |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
64 |
110 |
|
John N. Garner |
0 |
4 |
0 |
30 |
0 |
|
0 |
46 |
||
|
Alfred M.
Landon |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
44 |
|
|
Frank Knox |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1940 |
Franklin D.
Roosevelt |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
84 |
84 |
|
Henry A. Wallace |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Wendell L.
Wilkie |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Charles L. McNary |
0 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1944 |
Franklin D.
Roosevelt |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
104 |
104 |
|
Harry S Truman |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Thomas E.
Dewey |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Special
Prosecutor14 |
-110 |
-88 |
-82 |
|
|
John W. Bricker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
1948 |
Harry S
Truman |
4 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
34 |
|
Alben W. Barkley |
0 |
0 |
22 |
14 |
0 |
|
0 |
14 |
||
|
Thomas E.
Dewey |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Special
Prosecutor14 |
-110 |
-44 |
-38 |
|
|
Earl Warren |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
1952 |
Dwight D.
Eisenhower |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General +
Univ. Pres.15 |
220 |
220 |
224 |
|
Richard M. Nixon |
0 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
Adlai E.
Stevenson II |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Divorced16 |
-110 |
-66 |
-56 |
|
|
John J. Sparkman |
0 |
0 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
|
0 |
10 |
||
|
1956 |
Dwight D.
Eisenhower |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General +
Univ. Pres.15 |
220 |
240 |
260 |
|
Richard M. Nixon |
0 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
Adlai E.
Stevenson II |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Divorced16 |
-110 |
-66 |
-56 |
|
|
C. Estes Kefauver |
0 |
0 |
8 |
10 |
0 |
|
0 |
10 |
||
|
1960 |
John F.
Kennedy |
0 |
0 |
8 |
6 |
0 |
|
0 |
6 |
18 |
|
Lyndon B. Johnson |
0 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
|
0 |
12 |
||
|
Richard M.
Nixon |
0 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
Henry C. Lodge, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1964 |
Lyndon B.
Johnson |
1 |
3 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
|
0 |
17 |
17 |
|
Hubert H. Humphrey, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Barry M.
Goldwater |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
-96 |
|
|
William E. Miller |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
First
Catholic17 |
-110 |
-96 |
||
|
1968 |
Richard M.
Nixon |
0 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
6 |
|
Spiro T. Agnew |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
||
|
Hubert H.
Humphrey, Jr. |
0 |
4 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
Edmund S. Muskie |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
1972 |
Richard M.
Nixon |
4 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
24 |
42 |
|
Spiro T. Agnew |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
18 |
||
|
George S.
McGovern |
0 |
0 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
R. Sargent Shriver, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
1976 |
James E.
Carter, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
44 |
44 |
|
Walter F. Mondale |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
||
|
Gerald R.
Ford, Jr. |
2 |
1 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
|
0 |
35 |
43 |
|
|
Robert J. Dole |
0 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
||
|
1980 |
Ronald W.
Reagan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Divorced18 |
-110 |
-22 |
92 |
|
George H. W. Bush |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
Son of
Senator19 |
110 |
114 |
||
|
James E.
Carter, Jr. |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
0 |
64 |
80 |
|
|
Walter F. Mondale |
0 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
16 |
||
|
1984 |
Ronald W.
Reagan |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Divorced18 |
-110 |
-2 |
128 |
|
George H. W. Bush |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
Son of
Senator19 |
110 |
130 |
||
|
Walter F.
Mondale |
0 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
6 |
|
|
Geraldine A. Ferraro |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
1988 |
George H.
W. Bush |
0 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
Son of
Senator19 |
110 |
114 |
118 |
|
J. Danforth Quayle |
0 |
0 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
4 |
||
|
Michael S.
Dukakis |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
First Greek
Orthodox |
-110 |
110 |
6 |
|
|
Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
18 |
6 |
0 |
|
0 |
6 |
||
|
1992 |
William J.
Clinton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
|
0 |
132 |
250 |
|
Albert A. Gore, Jr. |
0 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Son of
Senator20 |
110 |
118 |
||
|
George H.
W. Bush |
4 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
Son of
Senator18 |
110 |
134 |
154 |
|
|
J. Danforth Quayle |
0 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
20 |
||
|
1996 |
William J.
Clinton |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
|
0 |
152 |
286 |
|
Albert A. Gore, Jr. |
0 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Son of
Senator20 |
110 |
134 |
||
|
Robert J.
Dole |
0 |
0 |
28 |
8 |
0 |
|
0 |
8 |
26 |
|
|
Jack F. Kemp |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
0 |
|
0 |
18 |
||
|
2000 |
George W.
Bush |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
|
0 |
66 |
77 |
|
Richard B. Cheney |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
0 |
|
0 |
11 |
||
|
Albert A.
Gore, Jr. |
0 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Son of
Senator20 |
110 |
118 |
8 |
|
|
Joseph I. Lieberman |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
First Jew |
-110 |
-110 |
||
1 George Washington was
chancellor of the
College of William and Mary between 1788 and 1799. In 1976, he was
posthumously
appointed to the grade of General of the Armies of the United States by
Public Law
94-479.
2 John Tyler was chancellor of
the College
of William and Mary.
3 Henry Clay was president of the
American
Colonization Society.
4 Theodore Frelinghuysen was vice
president of the American Colonization Society, chancellor of New York
University, and the son of Senator Frederick Frelinghuysen.
5 Ulysses S. Grant was appointed
to the
grade of General of the Army in 1866.
6 William A. Wheeler managed the
Bank of
Malone.
8 James A. Garfield was president
of Hiram
College.
8 Levi P. Morton founded the
banking firm
of Levi P. Morton and Company.
9 Henry G. Davis was chairman of
the
permanent Pan American Railway Committee.
10
T. Woodrow Wilson was president of
Princeton
University.
11
Nicholas M. Butler was president of
Columbia
University.
12
James M. Cox was divorced in 1912.
13
Charles G. Dawes was director of the
American
Exchange National Bank and the author of The Banking System of the
United States and Its Relation to
the Money and Business of the Country.
14
Thomas E. Dewey was appointed special
prosecutor
for a grand jury investigation of racketeering in New York City in 1935.
15
Dwight D. Eisenhower was appointed
General of
the Army in 1944 and was president of Columbia University.
16 Adlai E. Stevenson II was divorced in 1949.
17 Although Joseph Lane was a Catholic, he
converted to Catholicism seven years after he ran for Vice President in
1860.
18
Ronald W. Reagan was divorced in 1952.
19
George H. W. Bush is the son of Senator
Prescott
S. Bush.
20
Albert A. Gore, Jr. is the son of
Senator Albert
A. Gore.
3. Discussion
A presidential electability algorithm is of little use if it cannot predict the results of future elections. In this section, we apply the algorithm to the 2004 presidential election. Table 2 below shows the presidential electabilities of the nine currently declared candidates for the 2004 Democratic nomination for president.
Table 2. Presidential Electability of the Nine Declared Democratic Candidates for President in 2004
|
Candidate |
Pres. |
V.P. |
Sen. |
Rep. |
Gov. |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Howard B.
Dean |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
|
0 |
132 |
|
Wesley K.
Clark |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
General |
110 |
110 |
|
Richard A.
Gephardt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
0 |
|
0 |
28 |
|
Johnny R.
Edwards |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
Alfred
Sharpton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
Dennis J.
Kucinich |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
-102 |
|
John F.
Kerry |
0 |
0 |
20 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
-110 |
|
Carol
Moseley-Braun |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced |
-110 |
-110 |
|
Joseph I.
Lieberman |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
Divorced,
First Jew |
-220 |
-220 |
As can be seen in Table 2 above, the most electable Democratic presidential candidates in 2004 are Howard B. Dean, Wesley K. Clark, and Richard A. Gephardt. In order to defeat President George W. Bush (electability of 86 in 2004) and Vice President Richard B. Cheney (electability of 27 in 2004), the 2004 Democratic ticket will need to have a total electability of more than 113. They could achieve this by nominating Howard B. Dean for President, or Wesley K. Clark for President and someone for Vice President who has been Vice President for at least two years, a governor for at least five years, or a U.S. Representative for at least five years. Alternately, they could nominate Richard A. Gephardt for President and a banker, a college or university chancellor or president, or the child of a senator for Vice President. Two examples from the Clinton Administration are Larry Summers (president of Harvard University) and Donna Shalala (Chancellor of the University of Wisconsin at Madison). Another alternative would be to nominate Albert A. Gore, Jr. as Vice President (vice presidential electability of 150 in 2004) and Johnny R. Edwards or Alfred Sharpton as President. There is historical precedent for Vice Presidents running for Vice President after not having been Vice President (Adlai E. Stevenson ran for Vice President in 1900 after having been Vice President between 1893 and 1897 and Charles W. Fairbanks ran for Vice President in 1916 after having been Vice President between 1905 and 1909). Johnny R. Edwards or Alfred Sharpton could also win by choosing John D. Rockefeller, IV, as a running mate (he was president of West Virginia Wesleyan College and then governor of West Virginia for eight years before being elected to the United States Senate; vice presidential electability of 118 in 2004).
Schulman (2003) used the algorithm of Schulman (2001) to predict that either Howard B. Dean or Wesley K. Clark could defeat George W. Bush in 2004. As seen above, our more sophisticated algorithm indicates that any of the currently declared Democratic presidential candidates could in theory win the 2004 presidential election, provided they chose their vice presidential candidate wisely. However, Dennis J. Kucinich would need to choose someone who has been a banker and a college or university president or chancellor, or a college or university president or chancellor and the child of a U.S. Senator, or the child of a U.S. Senator and a banker. John F. Kerry or Carol Moseley-Braun would need to chose someone who has been a governor and/or a U.S. Representative for at least five years, who has been a banker and a college or university president or chancellor, or a college or university president or chancellor and the child of a U.S. Senator, or the child of a U.S. Senator and a banker. Joseph I. Lieberman would need to choose someone who has been a governor and/or U.S. Representative for at least five years, who is the child of a U.S. Senator, who has been a banker, and who has been a college or university president or chancellor. The existence of such a person is left as an exercise for the Lieberman campaign.
References
Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, http://bioguide.congress.gov.
Dawes, Charles G. 1894, The
Banking System
of the United States and Its Relation to the Money and Business of the
Country (Chicago: Rand
McNally).
Schulman, Eric. 2001, "Who Will Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election?" Annals of Improbably Research, Vol. 7, No. 1, pg. 26.
Schulman, Eric. 2003, "Who
Should Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election?" Annals of
Improbable
Research Online (June 30).