THE NEW AGE--Book Review--February 1990--BRDEMOTT.FEB






THE RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT POWERS.  1989.  By Paul Kennedy.  
Vintage Press.  ISBN 0-679-72019-7 paperback.  677 p. $10.95.

     This well-known historian relates economic changes to 
military conflicts between nations during the years 1500 to 2000.  
Divided into three sections--the strategy and economics of 
preindustrial, industrial and that of today and tomorrow--the 
book gives causes for the rise of nations into positions of 
strength, mostly in relative terms.  Statistics are given which 
support the theme that long-term military successes are largely 
dependent upon the economic strength of the nation.
     The early chapters deal with the rise of the Western World 
and the European powers, their conflicts and means of support.  
Great Britain, as a sea power with holdings around the world and 
special strengths in financial matters, is discussed, as is 
Germany and its desire for the expansion of its borders.
     World War II left all nations, except the United States, in 
a weaker position.  For a time the world was bipolar--divided 
between American and Russian spheres of influence--and a Cold War 
developed.  Gradually other nations gained strength and 
recognition.  The phenomenal economic growth of Japan is noted 
and explanations attempted.  China, by virtue of its vast 
population (a fourth of the world's total), has great potential.  
However, 70% of its labor force is engaged in providing food for 
the nation, compared to 20% in Russia and only 3% in the United 
States.  With increased technical expertise and a change in the 
philosophical attitude of the government, the Gross National 
Product of China may very well expand tremendously in the next 
few years.  Likewise, Russia, with a population comparable to the 
United States and land area over twice as large, is hampered by a 
governmental system which discourages initiative.
     The author suggests that nuclear weapons probably are 
unusable:  "In a nuclear war...the risk is run of inflicting and 
incurring such damage to mankind that no political, ideological 
or economic purpose would be served by it."
     The sophistication and cost of armaments are increasing, 
creating a military-industrial complex unknown in earlier times, 
expanding the training required of military personnel, but 
supposedly decreasing the number needed.  Using the history of 
Great Britain as an example, the author warns of the danger of 
the United States spreading its military manpower into too many 
bases around the globe.
     He further points out that those nations which allocate a 
large share of their funds to research and development in 
commercial products will enjoy a greater growth in Gross National 
Product than will those nations who spend heavily on research and 
development for national defense.
     This book is a definite contribution to the understanding of 
how and why nations become wealthy, powerful and prestigious.
                                   Bobby J. Demott, 33ø